This is basically the last big week in high school football. The final week is typically reserved for rivalry games, tune-up games before the playoffs, and now – bye weeks. This week will determine, minus crazy tiebreakers that take overall record in account, who will make the playoffs, and who will be region champions. Some things have already been decided, but many things are still up for grabs this week.
It would take me forever to go through 1A-7A, so I’m just doing 6A and 7A since I’m in Birmingham and that’s where all of the metro area teams are. If anyone is really that curious about other tiebreaker rules, you can get at me on Twitter @jlunce.
If you want to see the bracketology for 6A/7A updated, check them out here. I’ll update them Saturday after the games have been played, maybe Friday night if I’m still awake after all the scores come in.
Each region will be listed in the order teams are in after Week 9 (October 17). I will then explain the scenarios to finish as high as possible. I won’t explain most losing scenarios, but if you read teams below a certain team, you can figure them out. I can explain them individually if you contact me.
If there is an (IN) next to their names, that means they are already in the playoffs regardless of what happens from here on out, their seed just might not be determined yet. If there is even the slightest chance they could still be eliminated, even if it seems super improbable, I won’t mark them as in. I witnessed this with Homewood in 2006, the stars aligned and I held my breath just right, and they got in somehow on a miracle, thus bumping some other team out.
Final note – I guarantee I’ve screwed some of these up. While crunching all these numbers in my head, they started to run together and I hope I got it all right. If something doesn’t make sense, I can change it and hopefully make it make sense.
7A Region 1
1. Fairhope (IN) – Beat Murphy OR Theodore, Fairhope is region champ.
2. Baker (IN) – If Fairhope loses both of their games, and Baker wins out over Mary Montgomery AND Davidson, Baker wins the region. If Fairhope wins at least one more game, and Baker wins out, Baker will be a 2-seed.
3. Foley (IN) – Beat McGill-Toolen, Foley finishes as a 3-seed. Beat McGill-Toolen, and Baker loses both remaining games, Foley finishes as a 2-seed.
4. Murphy – Beat Alma Bryant, Murphy finishes as a 4-seed. Beat Fairhope and Alma Bryant, and Baker loses at least one game, Murphy finishes as a 4-seed. Beat Fairhope and Alma Bryant, and Baker loses both games, Murphy finishes as a 3-seed, with Foley as a 2-seed. Beat Fairhope and Alma Bryant, and Baker loses both games, and Foley loses to McGill-Toolen, then finish as a 2-seed. Can not win the region.
5. Theodore – In order to make the playoffs, Theodore has to beat McGill-Toolen AND Fairhope, and Murphy has to lose to Fairhope AND Alma Bryant. Highest possible seed is 4th.
6. Davidson – eliminated
7. Mary Montgomery – eliminated
8. McGill-Toolen – eliminated
9. Alma Bryant – eliminated
7A Region 2
1. Central-Phenix City (IN) – Clinched region championship, and a 1-seed.
2. Prattville (IN) – To finish 2nd, Prattville must beat Lee-Montgomery, and Auburn has to lose to Smiths Station. If Central loses to Enterprise, they will lose tiebreaker if Auburn wins, and finish 3rd. If Prattville loses, they will win the tiebreaker over Jeff Davis for 4th.
3. Enterprise – To finish 2nd, Enterprise must beat Central, and Prattville must lose to Lee. If Prattville beats Lee, but Auburn loses to Smiths Station, Enterprise will finish 3rd with a win. If all three teams win, Enterprise will finish 3rd as well. If Enterprise loses, they will lose a tiebreaker with Jeff Davis and not make the playoffs.
4. Auburn – To finish 2nd, Auburn must beat Smiths Station, and Enterprise must lose to Central. To finish 3rd, Enterprise must lose, but Prattville must win. If all teams win, Auburn will finish 4th based on overall record tiebreakers. If Auburn loses, they will win a tiebreaker over Jeff Davis.
5. Jeff Davis – To make the playoffs, Enterprise must lose, then Jeff Davis will win the head to head tiebreaker and be the 4-seed. If Enterprise loses and Auburn OR Prattville loses, Jeff Davis must beat Carver-Montgomery to be the 4-seed. If all three teams lose, Jeff Davis must beat Carver-Montgomery to possibly remain in the hunt and be a 3-seed on overall record and head to head tiebreaking rules. If Enterprise wins, Jeff Davis is eliminated.
6. Smiths Station – eliminated
7. Lee-Montgomery – eliminated
7A Region 3
1. Hoover (IN) – Clinched region championship, and a 1-seed.
2. Oak Mountain (IN) – Clinched a 2-seed.
3. Hewitt-Trussville – Must beat Hoover to guarantee a playoff spot. If Hewitt loses and Tuscaloosa County and Mountain Brook win, they are eliminated. If Hewitt loses and Vestavia and Spain Park win, there will still be a 5-way tie for third, and Hewitt can qualify as a 3-seed with a win over Clay-Chalkville. If Hewitt loses and Tuscaloosa County wins and Mountain Brook loses, then Hewitt will be the 4-seed. If Hewitt loses and Tuscaloosa County loses and Mountain Brook wins, then Hewitt will be eliminated.
4. Tuscaloosa County – Must beat Vestavia, and Mountain Brook must lose to be third seed. If Mountain Brook wins, Tuscaloosa County must beat Homewood to guarantee making the playoffs. If Hewitt loses to Clay, and County beats Homewood, County will be 3rd based on head to head tiebreaker. If Tuscaloosa County loses, and Hewitt and Mountain Brook win, then they are eliminated. If Tuscaloosa County loses, and Hewitt loses and Mountain Brook wins, they will have to beat Homewood to be the 4-seed. If Tuscaloosa County loses, and Hewitt wins and Mountain Brook loses, they will lose the tiebreaker and be eliminated.
5. Mountain Brook – Must beat Spain Park. If Mountain Brook, Hewitt, and Tuscaloosa County all win, Mountain Brook will have to beat Huffman, while Hewitt beats Clay-Chalkville, and Homewood beats Tuscaloosa County in order to qualify for the playoffs. If Mountain Brook loses, they are eliminated in all tiebreaker scenarios.
6. Spain Park – If Spain Park wins, Hewitt-Trussville loses to Hoover and Tuscaloosa County loses to Vestavia, then it will be a crazy 5-way tie, and Spain Park could qualify for the playoffs if they beat Bessemer City, and Tuscaloosa County loses to Homewood. If Hewitt loses to Clay Chalkville as well, they could potentially be the 3-seed.
7. Vestavia Hills – If Vestavia wins, Spain Park wins, and Hoover beats Hewitt-Trussville, then Vestavia will be in the same crazy 5-way tie. If Vestavia also beats Shades Valley, that will put them at 5-5 overall. Hewitt will also need to lose to Clay-Chalkville, Tuscaloosa County will need to lose to Homewood, and Spain Park will need to lose to Bessemer City to enter a 4-way tie on records alone, eliminating Mountain Brook. In that 4-way tie, Spain Park and Vestavia would have 2 wins in the group, while Hewitt and County would only have 1 win each. Therefore, Spain Park would be the 3-seed, and Vestavia would be the 4-seed. That is the only way they can make it.
8. Thompson – eliminated
7A Region 4
1. Gadsden City (IN) – Clinched region championship, and a 1-seed.
2. Bob Jones (IN) – Clinched 2-seed.
3. James Clemens (IN) – Clinched 3-seed.
4. Buckhorn – Beat Gadsden City, and Buckhorn is the 4-seed. If Buckhorn loses to Gadsden City, and Hazel Green beats Bob Jones, then Buckhorn is eliminated. If Buckhorn loses to Gadsden City and Hazel Green loses to Bob Jones, then Buckhorn is the 4-seed.
5. Hazel Green – Hazel Green must beat Bob Jones, and Buckhorn must lose to Gadsden City in order to qualify as a 4-seed.
6. Huntsville – eliminated
7. Sparkman – eliminated
8. Grissom – eliminated
6A Region 1
1. Spanish Fort – Must win out to clinch the region championship on tiebreakers. If Spanish Fort loses any remaining games, and either Saraland or Daphne wins out, they could potentially not make the playoffs.
2. Saraland (IN) – Must beat Blount, and Spanish Fort must lose to either Robertsdale or Citronelle in order to clinch the region title. If Saraland loses to Blount, the farthest they could drop is 4th.
3. Daphne (IN) – Daphne must win out, and Spanish Fort AND Saraland must lose one more region game for Daphne to clinch the region title. If Daphne loses their remaining two region games, the worst they could finish is 4th.
4. Blount – Blount must beat LeFlore OR Saraland to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs. If Blount wins out and beats Saraland, and either Spanish Fort OR Daphne lose another game, or if neither team loses a game, then Blount will finish 3rd. If Blound wins out and beats Saraland and Spanish Fort AND Daphne both lose one game, then they will enter a 2-way tie for first while Daphne is 3rd on tiebreakers and Spanish Fort is 4th because they would have lost to lower ranked teams. In that scenario Blount would win the region championship on head to head over Saraland.
5. Robertsdale – Robertsdale must win out, and Blount must lose out OR Spanish Fort must lose out. If both Blount AND Spanish Fort lose out, then Robertsdale will lose the tiebreaker and be eliminated.
6. Baldwin County – eliminated
7. Gulf Shores – eliminated
8. LeFlore – eliminated
9. Citronelle – eliminated
6A Region 2
Note: I’ll be honest, there are a lot of tiebreakers here, and some things could come down to a coin flip for this region. I can say that Carver will be in no matter what, but could lose a tiebreaker and finish multiple places. All of the top 5 teams have lost to each other, and some have lost to teams below that. Currently Park Crossing, Wetumpka, Dothan, and Stanhope Elmore are all tied at 4-2. Every where I have noted below to see this note, that means there are going to be so many tiebreakers put into place, that I can’t guarantee where anyone will finish. I could probably work all of the scenarios out, but they aren’t paying me enough for that. There are so many teams with such similar records right now, and the way the schedule plays out, there will be tiebreakers regardless, between either 2, 3, or 4 teams. There are so many possible 3 and 4 team tiebreaker scenarios, that I have not gone through and done them all. All of the teams with a chance need to win to solidify themselves in the playoffs, except Carver.
1. Carver-Montgomery (IN) – Must beat Wetumpka to win the region championship.
2. Wetumpka – Beat Carver, and enter into a tiebreaker with at least two other teams (see note). Lose to Carver, and Stanhope beats Park Crossing AND Dothan beats Russell County, then Wetumpka would be the 4-seed. Lose to Carver, and Stanhope beats Park Crossing AND Russell County beats Dothan, then enter a tiebreaker with at least two other teams (see note).
3. Park Crossing – See note
4. Dothan – See note
5. Stanhope Elmore – See note
6. Northview – eliminated
7. Carroll – eliminated
8. Russell County – eliminated
6A Region 3
1. Opelika (IN) – Clinched region championship, and a 1-seed.
2. Benjamin Russell (IN) – Clinched 2-seed.
3. Pell City – If Pell City beats Valley, they will be the 4-seed. If Pell City loses to Valley, and Oxford beats Chelsea, then Pell City must beat Oak Mountain to guarantee a playoff berth. If Pell City loses to Valley, and Chelsea beats Oxford, then Pell City will be eliminated.
4. Oxford – If Oxford beats Chelsea, then they will clinch the 3-seed. If Oxford loses to Chelsea, and Chilton County loses to Benjamin Russell, they are eliminated.
5. Chelsea – If Chelsea beats Oxford, and Pell City loses to Valley, Chelsea will clinch the 3-seed. If Pell City beats Valley, Chelsea will be the 4-seed. If Chelsea loses then they are eliminated.
6. Valley – If Valley beats Pell City, Chelsea beats Oxford, and Chilton County loses to Benjamin Russell, Valley will clinch the 4-seed. If Valley beats Pell City, Chelsea beats Oxford, and Chilton County beats Benjamin Russell, Valley will be eliminated. If Valley loses they are eliminated.
7. Chilton County – If Chilton County beats Benjamin Russell, and Valley beats Pell City, and Chelsea beats Oxford, then they will clinch the 4-seed on the best win of the group of tied teams.
6A Region 4
1. McAdory (IN) – Clinched region championship, and a 1-seed.
2. Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa (IN) – Clinched 2-seed.
3. Bessemer City (IN) – Clinched 3-seed.
4. Selma – Beat Northridge, clinch 4-seed.
5. Northridge – Beat Selma, clinch 4-seed.
6. Brookwood – eliminated
7. Paul Bryant – eliminated
6A Region 5
1. Homewood (IN) – Clinched region championship, and a 1-seed.
2. Walker (IN) – Beat Hueytown, clinch 2-seed. Lose to Hueytown, and Minor beats Pelham, clinch 3-seed. Lose to Hueytown, and Minor loses to Pelham, clinch 2-seed.
3. Minor (IN) – Beat Pelham and Walker loses to Hueytown, clinch 2-seed. Lose to Pelham, clinch 3-seed.
4. Briarwood – Beat John Carroll, clinch 4-seed. Lose to John Carroll, and Jackson-Olin loses to Homewood, clinch 4-seed. Lose to John Carroll, and Jackson-Olin beats Homewood, Briarwood is eliminated.
5. Jackson-Olin – Beat Homewood, Briarwood loses to John Caroll, clinch 4-seed. Lose to Homewood, Jackson-Olin is eliminated.
6. Hueytown – eliminated
7. Pelham – eliminated
8. John Carroll – eliminated
6A Region 6
1. Clay-Chalkville (IN) – Beat Gardendale, clinch region championship and a 1-seed. Lose to Gardendale, and beat Hewitt-Trussville, clinch region championship and a 1-seed. Lose to Gardendale, and Hewitt, clinch 2-seed.
2. Shades Valley (IN) – Beat Pinson Valley and Vestavia, and Clay-Chalkville loses to Gardendale and Hewitt, and clinch region championship and a 1-seed. Lose to Pinson Valley, Gardendale beats Clay-Chalkville, clinch 3-seed. Lose to Pinson Valley, Clay-Chalkville beats Gardendale, clinch 2-seed.
3. Gardendale (IN) – Beat Clay-Chalkville, and Shades Valley loses to Pinson Valley, then clinch 2-seed. Any other result, clinch 3-seed.
4. Pinson Valley (IN) – Clinched 4-seed.
5. Huffman – eliminated
6. Center Point – eliminated
7. Woodlawn – eliminated
6A Region 7
1. Southside-Gadsden (IN) – Beat Fort Payne, clinch region championship and a 1-seed. Lose and clinch 2-seed.
2. Fort Payne (IN) – Beat Southside-Gadsden, clinch region championship and a 1-seed. Lose and clinch 2-seed.
3. Arab (IN) – Beat Scottsboro, clinch 3-seed. Lose and clinch 4-seed.
4. Scottsboro (IN) – Beat Arab, clinch 3-seed. Lose and clinch 3-seed.
5. Albertville – eliminated
6. Lee-Huntsville – eliminated
7. Brewer – eliminated
6A Region 8
Note about Region 8: Muscle Shoals is only playing 9 games this season. Not sure what the reasoning behind that is. I have to research and see what the deal is with this because it’s very likely that a tiebreaker could come into play that would be weird with 9 games played for them and 10 for everyone else.
1. Florence (IN) – Beat Decatur, clinch region championship and a 1-seed. Lose to Decatur, and clinch 2-seed.
2. Decatur (IN) – Beat Florence, clinch region championship and a 1-seed. Lose to Florence, and Muscle Shoals loses to Cullman, and clinch 2-seed. Lose to Florence, and Muscle Shoals beats Cullman, and clinch 3-seed.
3. Muscle Shoals – Beat Cullman, and Florence beats Decatur, clinch 2-seed. Lose to Cullman, and Hartselle beats Austin, then Muscle Shoals must beat Buckhorn to clinch 3-seed.
4. Hartselle – Beat Austin AND Hazel Green, clinch a playoff spot.
5. Cullman – Beat Muscle Shoals, and Hartselle loses to Austin, clinch 3-seed. Lose to Muscle Shoals, Cullman is eliminated on all tiebreakers (I’m 99% sure).
6. Austin – eliminated
7. Athens – eliminated