High School Predictions – Week 10

Normally week 10 would be the last week, but with the new crazy scheduling from the AHSAA this season, this is actually the end of region play for a lot of teams, with one more non-region week next week. Some teams will take a bye next week as well, so this is the last full weekend most likely for high school football.

Decent week last week, going 8-2. One miss was Hewitt beating Mountain Brook, so the Huskies kept their playoff hopes alive. The other was Chelsea losing to Pell City. Apparently they had some QB injury issues, so they got down early, but didn’t have the power to come back and win. They have to win this week to make the playoffs, despite looking like a contender for region champ early on.

Week 1: 1-4
Week 2: 7-4
Week 3: 8-3
Week 4: 9-2
Week 5: 7-4
Week 6: 5-4
Week 7: 8-4
Week 8: 11-0
Week 9: 8-2

Total: 64-27

Region championships are still up for grabs, and a lot of playoff spots in general are up for grabs.

In 7A Region 3, Hoover is solid in first, and Oak Mountain in second – but it’s wide open after that thanks to Mountain Brook’s loss last weekend. If Hewitt loses to Hoover, which is likely, and Vestavia beats Tuscaloosa County, while Spain Park beats Mountain Brook (both of which are possible), then there will be a 5-way tie for 3rd place. My head hurts just thinking about the possibilities there, but just know there are 5 teams who must win not only this week, but next week as well.

Every school in 7A Region 3 that could potentially be in the tiebreaker will step down and play a 6A team in week 11. However, Hewitt has to play Clay-Chalkville, who will be a region champ most likely. County has to play Homewood, who is already a region champ. Vestavia has to play Shades Valley who could potentially be a region champ, but definitely in second already. Spain Park and Mountain Brook have much easier games with Bessemer City and Huffman respectively, so they could squeak in on that. Hewitt has the best overall record coming into this week, so they have that advantage, but are playing the best two teams in the entire state, throughout all classifications, over the next two weeks with Hoover and Clay-Chalkville. Tough break.

In 6A Region 5, Homewood has 100% locked up the championship and a 1-seed. Briarwood has to beat John Carroll, who is one of the worst teams in the state, in order to clinch their 4th seed. Jackson-Olin has to beat Homewood, and Briarwood has to lose to John Carroll for the Lions to not make it.

6A Region 6 is still up for grabs depending on what happens with Gardendale and Clay-Chalkville this weekend. Clay has basically locked things up by being undefeated overall right now. Even a loss to Gardendale won’t necessarily knock them out. It will put them in a three way tie (if Shades Valley beats Pinson Valley), and they will have to see if Clay or Shades Valley loses in week 11 to see who moves on. If Clay loses to Gardendale, but beats Hewitt, they are #1. If they lose to Gardendale and Hewitt, and Shades Valley beats Pinson Valley and Vestavia, then Shades Valley will be #1. Gardendale’s loss to Minor is huge, and will most likely keep them from winning the region. Gardendale is going to be the 3-seed from that region, regardless of what happens against Clay, if Shades Valley wins this week.

I’ll detail in a separate post what each team needs to make the playoffs or win the region.

Week Ten

Jackson-Olin at Homewood
Oxford at Chelsea
Briarwood at John Carroll
Pelham at Minor
Hoover at Hewitt-Trussville
Spain Park at Mountain Brook
Oak Mountain at Thompson
Tuscaloosa County at Vestavia
Clay-Chalkville at Gardendale

AHSAA Game of the Week

Sumter Central at Calera