Alabama wins but it feels like a loss with Tua going out for the season. Auburn loses but almost comes back to get a big win over #4 Georgia. Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma make a huge comeback against undefeated Baylor. What a weekend of football – let’s get into the Post-Week 12 Overreactions, Tier List, Heisman Favorites and more!
ALABAMA’S PLAYOFF CHANCES ARE OVER! – I don’t agree with this, I think they have a chance to be actually impress the committee now and still get in.
Gary Danielson brought a point up, and I agree with it, about 2014 when Ohio State had a loss and yet worked their way into the playoff picture over other 1-loss teams with a third string QB. They got in because Cardale Jones came in and looked very impressive as Ohio State crushed Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and showed the committee that they weren’t going to skip a beat in going from Braxton Miller to JT Barrett to Cardale Jones.
Alabama has a chance to show how good of a team they are if Mac Jones comes in and they play well and beat Auburn on the road (something Alabama couldn’t do two years ago). Auburn winning over Georgia would have helped, but their near comeback made them look a little better.
THE SEC SHOULDN’T GET TWO TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFF! – I’m going to keep this as an overreaction since we have a playoff ranking to work with after last week. I do think Alabama is the best chance to get a second team in, but there is a chance for Georgia to beat LSU and get both of those in at something like 3 and 4.
Here is the best chance for Alabama:
– LSU has to win out and look strong in winning the conference over Georgia
– Ohio State has to win out
– Clemson has to win out and look strong
I think the best path is for those three to easily get in. Let the three seeds get in and shoot for the fourth seed. As for what happens after that:
– Georgia is the wildcard, but luckily LSU winning out would knock Georgia out. Georgia got the win over Auburn to help solidify themselves as a top 4 team for now, but LSU can knock them out and if Alabama crushes Auburn then it will make Georgia look a little worse with their South Carolina loss and almost letting Auburn come back to win.
– Oregon/Utah are sitting at one loss a piece and are most likely heading to the Pac-12 title game against each other. Oregon has a better chance to make it because their loss is to a decent Auburn team. Utah lost to a mediocre USC team so I don’t know if they will have a chance to make it. I don’t see Alabama dropping behind Utah if they both win out. With Oregon, the committee will see that Alabama went on the road and beat Auburn while Oregon lost in a neutral site game to them. So while the conference championship means an extra win and a conference title (which they seem to value), it’s tough to put them ahead in my opinion, but the committee may value their overall seasons with a conference title. I do think the committee will move Oregon ahead of Alabama this week though and make Alabama have to win their way back in front with a big win against Auburn.
– Oklahoma is a tough one. The Big 12 champion has a chance to be a 1-loss Baylor or 1-loss Oklahoma. But if Oklahoma wins, do they give Jalen the nod with a loss to a (at best) 3-loss Kansas State team? Or Alabama who lost to the best team in the country, but would have to potentially play them again away from home after losing to them AT home. I think there is a chance Oklahoma would get in, but this is the closest argument for a 1-loss team over Alabama in my opinion. The Sooners still have a game against Oklahoma State who is ranked right now while Baylor has a Texas team that could be tough.
I think Minnesota eliminated themselves with a loss to Iowa. Penn State is still alive, but they have to beat Ohio State and potentially Minnesota again or Wisconsin.
Jon’s Playoff Rankings
1. LSU (10-0) – Has wins over Texas, Alabama, Florida, Auburn. All quality wins, and still have a decent Texas A&M squad left (but Alabama/Clemson also beat them).
2. Ohio State (10-0) – Has a win over Wisconsin, but that’s about it right now. Still have Penn State/Michigan left plus a potential Big Ten title game against either Minnesota or Wisconsin.
3. Clemson (10-0) – Has a win over Texas A&M, not that quality of a win when potentially three other contenders could have wins over them too (LSU, Alabama, Georgia). They could end with zero ranked wins, including in the ACC title game.
4. Georgia (9-1) – Has wins over Notre Dame, Florida, Auburn. Have a chance to potentially win the SEC championship over #1 LSU.
5. Alabama (9-1) – Has a win over Texas A&M, but once again, not that quality of a win. Their loss is to #1 LSU by 5 points at home. Still have a chance to beat ranked Auburn on the road. Tua being out probably hurts them now, but could somewhat help them if they win over Auburn with a back-up.
6. Oregon (9-1) – Has no ranked wins. Their loss is to highly ranked Auburn. Nothing much going for them other than they could be a one-loss conference champion with a somewhat quality loss (although if Auburn loses to Alabama, that won’t be quite as quality). Their only other ranked game will most likely be against Utah in the Pac-12 title game (and they still have a chance to slip up).
7. Oklahoma (9-1) – Has a win over Texas, Baylor. Their loss is to unranked Kansas State. They have one of the worst losses and have struggled lately, but came back from down 28-3 to beat Baylor. They have a ranked Oklahoma State left on their schedule plus a Big 12 title game shot against most likely Baylor.
8. Penn State (9-1) – Has wins over Iowa, Michigan. Their loss is to Minnesota. Still have Ohio State in two weeks to stay alive for a Big Ten title and potentially a playoff spot.
9. Utah (9-1) – Has no ranked wins. Their loss is to 6-4 USC and that loss could be costly if they are upset anywhere in their next three games because it could knock them out of the Pac-12 title game. As it stands, they are the weakest of the 1-loss teams in my opinion.
10. Minnesota (9-1) – Has a win over Penn State. Lost to Iowa. Not a great resume otherwise, but they still have Wisconsin (at home) left on their schedule. They only need to beat Wisconsin to make it to the Big Ten title game to have a shot at Ohio State (or potentially Penn State).
11. Baylor (9-1) – Has wins over Kansas State, Oklahoma State (who are now ranked). Has a loss to top 10 Oklahoma. They have a shot at Oklahoma again in the Big 12 title game to maybe make some noise.
1. QB Joe Burrow (LSU)
2. QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)
3. QB Justin Fields (Ohio State)
4. RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)
5. QB Tua Tagovailoa (Ohio State)
Honorable Mentions: Chuba Hubbard, Chase Young, Justin Herbert, Anthony Gordon