Decent last week in my picks here, but in our office pool I did TERRIBLE. Never mind that, it’s time to turn things around overall and go perfect this week! (let’s hope)
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The lines below are as of this posting, October 10.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 2-2
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Week 7 Picks
Boise State (-6.5) at BYU – Hank Bachmeier went down against Hawaii and we don’t know if he’ll be ready to go or how healthy he will be if he does go. However, his backups were perfectly fine after he went out. Meanwhile, BYU could be starting third-string QB Baylor Romney. The spread is less than a touchdown so I have faith Boise will do it. I’ve been good in picking Mountain West games so far this year, so hopefully this sticks too.
12-5 in MWC picks in 2019
Result – Loss. Tough break for Boise…and me.
Louisiana-Monroe at Appalachian State (-15) – This line has actually been bet down from -17, but App State is looking good this year and former Hewitt-Trussville QB Zac Thomas is playing great, completing 71% of his passes and leading the team to a 5-0 start.
App State is 4-1 ATS while Louisiana-Monroe is only 2-4. I think people are giving them too much respect for their close game against FSU. They then went and lost by 52 to Iowa State and failed to cover against South Alabama and Memphis. The only other cover was a small cover over Texas State last week.
I like this App State team, who already beat North Carolina and gets South Carolina in a few weeks and could cause a stir for the top Group of 5 team should Boise falter.
15-3 in Sun Belt picks this season
Result – Win. App State is now in control to be that top Group of 5 team.
Missouri (-20.5) at Vanderbilt – Vanderbilt is bad this year, any progress Derek Mason had made is gone and they are sitting at 1-5 on the year and 0-6 ATS. Their one win wasn’t even a cover when they were -7 against Northern Illinois and won by 6. They lost to UNLV last week by 24 points despite being a 16 point favorite.
Missouri meanwhile has had a nice bounce back from their first game of the season where they went to Wyoming and lost, rattling off five straight wins and going 4-1 ATS in those games. Their only loss ATS was beating Ole Miss by 11 and being favored by 12.
I think they go manhandled Vandy this week and cover three touchdowns. They will probably remain undefeated in the SEC East until November 9 when they travel to Georgia, and even that game is more intriguing now with the loss to South Carolina…who Missouri beat by 20. They also get Florida at home after that then end with two easy wins over Tennessee and Arkansas. They are this year’s Kentucky.
Watch out for Mizzou, they could be a threat in the East.
3-1 in picking Vanderbilt games ATS this season
Result – Loss. The SEC East is drunk.
Lock of the week
Florida (-6) at South Carolina
Florida will bounce back from their loss at LSU and get a big win over South Carolina. The Gamecock win over Georgia is more indicative of Georgia than it is South Carolina. Let’s not forget their blowout losses to Alabama and Missouri. Despite Florida’s loss to LSU, they are still a really solid team and should win by more than a touchdown.
11-4 in last 15 games picking road favorites
Result – Win. The rain made me a little worried, but Florida ended up covering easy enough.