Strong week of picks last week, hitting all three of my on-air picks and going 1-1 in online picks (I don’t know why I got greedy and picked the Auburn/Florida game as a bonus, but I did and I’m sorry).
Typically when I appear on the Player’s Club, I like to hit some different games than the big ones everyone is talking about. That means I will touch on some lesser known Power 5 games and some big Group of 5 games. This week, it’s all Group of 5 in my three games on-air as we jump into some MACTION!
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Saturdays 8-9 am
The lines below are as of this posting, October 10.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
If you want to follow other picks I make in college football, NFL, or any other sport, follow me on the Action Network app – myaction.app/jlunce
Week 7 Picks
Northern Illinois at Ohio (-6.5) – Ohio has had a lot of close games this year which usually leads to not covering a lot, but Northern Illinois hasn’t been great either sitting at 1-4 on the year. The MAC is not up to form with only one team having a winning record at the halfway point in the season.
Ohio is at home for only the third time this year and is off to a 1-0 start in conference play. Northern Illinois looks bad, on a four game losing streak, with their only win over FCS Illinois State by 14 to start the season. They just lost to a bad Ball State team with a losing record.
This is an Ohio team that was almost unanimously picked to win the MAC East division by all of us here at Jox, so it’s time they started playing like it. There is still a chance because at 2-3 (1-0), they actually are tied for the best record in the division.
Ohio is a top 20 team in third down conversions while Northern Illinois ranks last (130th) in third down efficiency when they are on offense.
11-3 in MAC picks in 2019
Result – Loss. Was a close one back and forth but NIU got the win at the end.
New Mexico State at Central Michigan (-10) – Jim McElwain’s bunch is a covering machine this year, going 4-1 in their FBS games. Their lone ATS loss was against a top ten team in Wisconsin. Two of their three straight-up losses are to Wisconsin and Miami.
New Mexico State is an awful football team. They are 0-6 for a reason, although they are 3-3 ATS including at Alabama.
Quentin Dormady is back under center for Central Michigan after getting injured. Backup David Moore tested positive for a banned substance so he is gone which hurts depth, McElwain said Dormady is back to full health and should be good to go.
5-1 in last 5 MAC ATS picks
3-0 ATS record in picking New Mexico State games
Result – Win. New Mexico State is bad.
Hawaii at Boise State (-12.5) – Boise is undefeated and looking like they could be the top Group of 5 team this year now that UCF has multiple losses. They are 5-0 on the year, 4-1 ATS and that includes a straight up win at Florida State.
Hawaii is good this season, but not covering quite as much. Hank Bachmeier is playing fairly solid this season as a true freshman, and Boise State is a fairly disciplined team, being one of the least penalized teams in the country, even after having a bad game against UNLV.
They are one of the better third down teams on offense, but have the #3 third down defense in the country.
Hawaii’s gunslinging style is fun and all, but it is also too risky. Sure Cole McDonald has thrown for a bunch of touchdowns, but he’s also thrown a bunch of interceptions and is at less than a 2-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Give me the Broncos.
8-2 in last 10 MWC ATS picks
Result – Win. No doubt in this one, even though Bachmeier went down early.
Lock of the week
Mississippi State (-7) at Tennessee
I like the Bulldogs in this position. Tennessee is terrible and people are only even talking about them right now because they almost covered 24.5 against Georgia…but they still didn’t. Only a touchdown line? I’ll take it. Kylin Hill should run all over this team, but we don’t know who the starting QB will be for Mississippi State. However, Tennessee has made a QB change as well to negate that.
5-1 in top lock picks this season
Result – Loss. I’m done with Mississippi State and Tennessee
USC at Notre Dame (Under 59)
Don’t know why I am adding a bonus again but let’s go hard again. Take the under, USC’s offense won’t be able to much against Notre Dame’s defense.
Result – Win. Added this early Saturday, it was close but a big win.