Last week…sheesh. What an awful week four, we’ll forget it ever happened except for my stone cold lock of the century hit with Wisconsin embarrassing Michigan. Michigan is really good at embarrassing themselves, it’s quite comical actually.
Hopefully a rebound this week, we’ll see!
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The lines below are as of this posting, September 26.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
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Week 5 Picks
Ohio State (-17) at Nebraska – Ohio State will continue to roll. This look like the kind of game that Ohio State will lose (they are good for one of these each year seems like), but they are 3-1 against the spread with big numbers (their only ATS loss is letting FAU score some garbage points at the end of their first game). They are beating opponents by an average of over 44 points.
Nebraska meanwhile is 1-3 ATS with their lone cover coming against Northern Illinois.
Justin Fields is looking as good as advertised with 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. JK Dobbins looks legit so far rushing for just under 500 yards and 5 TD.
Result – Ohio State is on a roll, hard to see them losing.
Houston at North Texas (-7) – Be wary of this one being bet up over a touchdown, I might not would play it if so.
Houston is going to have to adjust to losing quarterback D’Eriq King to redshirt and North Texas has a good one in Mason Fine who has basically been a four-year starter for the Mean Green.
Both teams are 2-2 ATS, but Houston was that way with their star players and only went 1-3 overall. Sophomore Clayton Tune will step in at QB – he did start two games last year when King was out with an injury but only completed 50% of his passes and they lost those two games by a combined 132-45.
North Texas is 2-2 overall, but one of those losses is Cal who is currently the only undefeated in the Pac-12 and SMU who is a sneaky good undefeated team with Shane Buechele at QB.
Result – Is Houston better off without D’Eriq King?
UAB (-3) at Western Kentucky – After a really bad start against Alabama State, UAB has won and covered their FBS games since then. Western Kentucky lost to Central Arkansas and their only win is over FIU (who was a bit overrated coming into the season as they are 1-3).
The Hilltoppers are coming off a bye, but UAB is looking better and better each week. While Spencer Brown hasn’t been quite as dynamic this season, Tyler Johnston is hitting his stride, throwing for 7 touchdowns and completing nearly 70% of his passes in the last two games for over 600 yards plus he’s a good runner too.
It’s a small line at only 3 points and I think they get this win to improve to 4-0.
Result – This was more like the UAB team we saw that nearly lost to Alabama State…
Lock of the week
Mississippi State (+10.5) at Auburn
This is kind of a trap game for Auburn. After going on the road to Texas A&M and having to go on the road next week against Florida, Mississippi State is a sneaky good team coming to Jordan Hare this weekend. Auburn is perfect on the season both straight up and against the spread while Mississippi State is 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight up.
Don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs cover. I expect Auburn to win, but they haven’t shown me they can be a dominant team yet. They beat their two power 5 opponents by 6 and 8 points and only beat Tulane 24-6 at home. Mississippi State’s only loss is to #24 Kansas State who is undefeated. They beat Kentucky last week in a big win by 15.
Result – Leave it to the first time I pick against Auburn this year ATS for them to show out…