Another 3-1 week last week with Maryland screwing me again. That’s the last time I pick for or against the T(w)erps.
I’m bound to go backwards this week but we’ll see, check out the picks below.
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The lines below are as of this posting, September 19.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
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Week 4 Picks
UCF (-12) at Pittsburgh – UCF is 3-0 against the spread so far this season. Dillon Gabriel is starting to get comfortable in that offense, throwing for 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. They whooped up on Stanford at home and Gabriel is the highest rated true freshman QB through three weeks over Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and others with 11.4 yards per attempt which is fourth in the nation, ahead of Tua, Jake Fromm, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence and more.
The UCF offense is ranked top 5 in the nation in total yardage, points, and top 10 in rushing. Greg McCrae and company have been legit running the ball, scoring 9 touchdowns so far, with the top four running backs averaging a combined 7.4 yards per carry and they protect the ball with the starting offense yet to turn the ball over.
I feel like people may buy too much into the hype of Pitt for playing Penn State close on the road last week. Pat Narduzzi totally botched the end of the game by not going for a touchdown to tie, instead opting for a 19 yard field goal which missed.
Pitt averaged less than one yard per carry rushing 25 times for 24 yards against Penn State. They threw for 372 yards but on 51 attempts. UCF has a good rush defense so I expect more of the same from Pitt’s run game.
I know UCF has to travel, but they are for real this season. The only thing that can beat them right now is a good old J Lunce Jinx.
Result – RIP UCF’s playoff chances forever
Washington State (-18.5) at UCLA – UCLA is terrible and Chip Kelly is done for. You wondered how Washington State would look without Gardner Minshew…well, they currently have the #1 quarterback in the league in Anthony Gordon who has completed almost 79% of his passes for 1,324 yards, 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is one of only two quarterbacks to throw for 12 touchdowns so far this season, the other being Tua.
I watched some of the Houston game where Washington State had to go on the road and they won in Texas. Gordon looked so comfortable in the pocket and was very accurate. Houston is the only team worth anything that they have played, but they played New Mexico State to about the same score as Alabama. All the credit in the world to Mike Leach.
UCLA is also 0-3 ATS.
Result – I WENT TO BED WHEN WASHINGTON STATE WAS UP 32! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!
Louisville (+6.5) at Florida State – Not super confident on this one because both teams are bad, but Louisville is sitting at 2-1 and they are 3-0 against the spread thanks to beating it by a point against Notre Dame. We won’t truly know how good or bad Notre Dame is until they play Georgia this weekend, but Louisville can get Florida State while they are down. FSU is 0-2-1 ATS, tying a touchdown spread last week against Virginia. Their only straight up win on the season is a 1-point win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Everyone fully expects FSU to win this game, which is why they are favored by almost a touchdown, but this line has moved from -8.5 to -6.5 for a reason. I think Louisville could win outright, but if you could get this line at 7 or over, I’d feel more comfortable.
Juwan Pass is injured, but former Park Crossing star Malik Cunningham led Louisville to a win last week over Western Kentucky. I’ve liked Cunningham since watching him in high school and he’s already improved in the passing game compared to last year. FSU is giving up almost 500 yards a game so far and they have only played two group of 5 teams and Virginia.
Result – Taggart is still overrated
Lock of the week
Wisconsin (-3.5) vs. Michigan
Michigan hasn’t looked great and I believe in Jonathan Taylor. Wisconsin is 2-0 ATS, Michigan is 0-2 and this will set the trajectory of both team’s seasons. I just trust Wisconsin more than I trust Michigan right now.
Result – At least I can count on Harbaugh being terrible