A good week last week as I went 3-1, my only loss was with Maryland stomping Syracuse. This week, I like Maryland over Temple (which means I will probably lose) and a group of 5 team to win big over a Power 5 team.
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The lines below are as of this posting, September 12.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
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Week 3 Picks
UCF (-8.5) vs. Stanford – We don’t know who the starting quarterback will be – Brandon Wimbush started against Florida A&M but true freshman Dillon Gabriel started against FAU after wimbush had a small injury. Either one of those could start the game or Darriel Mack who came in last year for McKenzie Milton. And Milton is still there. What a QB room.
Meanwhile, KJ Costello will be back after being injured against Northwestern. He played well overall going 16/20 for 152 yards and a touchdown. However, they lost preseason All-American left tackle Walker Little for the season and starting right tackle Foster Sarell is also doubtful. Having to shift their offensive line so much hurts them. Not that UCF has the greatest defensive line on the planet, but being in the trenches my whole life, my former coach used to tell me the offensive line was like five fingers in a glove, each one has to fit the right whole and when you start pulling pieces out, and shifting them around, it completely throws the offense out of whack.
Stanford didn’t look great in their loss to USC who had also lost their QB and they have to travel to hot and humid Orlando across the country and play a somewhat early game for them.
Result – WINNER!
Maryland (-7) at Temple – Maryland has been a surprising story so far. I did not expect them to whoop Syracuse the way they did. Mike Locksley’s squad is averaging over 70 points per game in their first two games. They won’t put up that many, Temple is a decent team, but still there is more than enough explosiveness to defeat Temple by more than one score.
Last week was their biggest win ever against a ranked opponent.
Josh Jackson has looked really good throwing for 7 touchdowns and only one pick. They also put up over 350 rushing yards and six rushing TD’s.
It’s maybe a bit of an overreaction, but they have looked really good.
Temple’s one game was a 56-12 win over Bucknell so they haven’t even played an FBS team yet. They are coming off a bye, but does that really mean anything this early in the season? Also, they are adjusting to new head coach Rod Carey who was decent at Northern Illinois, but I didn’t think he was that great. He was a backup plan to Manny Diaz.
Result – Maryland is stupid and I hate them
Oklahoma State (-14) at Tulsa – A bit of an emotional game as T. Boone Pickens passed away this week. Oklahoma State has looked really good, albeit against bad competition in Oregon State and McNeese State.
Spencer Sanders has been phenomenal completing almost 74% of his passes with 6 TD’s and no picks. He’s also rushed 25 times for 160 yards. He might be the best freshman quarterback playing right now. Chuba Hubbard has looked great, rushing 34 times for 265 yards (7.8 ypc) and four touchdowns as well.
Tylan Wallace is the next in a great line of wide receivers from Oklahoma State after James Washington, Josh Stewart, Justin Blackmon. He was phenomenal last year with almost 1500 yards and 12 touchdowns. So far this year he has only 10 catches for an average of 27.2 yards per catch and 5 touchdowns. Literally half his catches are touchdowns.
Tulsa got shut down by Michigan State and had -73 yards rushing and only 80 total yards. They looked better against San Jose State, but that isn’t saying much.
Oklahoma State has a dynamic offense and I expect them to get the cover easy enough.
Result – WINNER!
Lock of the week
Iowa (-2.5) at Iowa State (UNDER 44.5)
This will be a low scoring game. Iowa State struggled against Northern Iowa in their one game and only put up 13 points in regulation. Meanwhile, Iowa has only averaged 34 points per game against Rutgers and MIami (Ohio).
Result – It took all day, but the under was never in doubt