I went big and ended up .500, so not bad, still up on the season as we head into a huge rivalry weekend.
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The lines below are as of November 27.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 2-2
Week 9: 2-3
Week 10: 5-0
Week 11: 2-3
Week 12: 4-2
Week 13: 4-4
Week 14: 6-1
Total: 42-28 (60%)
On-Air Picks: 28-19 (60%)
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Week 13 Picks
Louisville at Kentucky (-3) – Both teams are decent against the number but Kentucky is 4-2 ATS at home this year. The line is fluctuating between 2.5 and 3.5 depending on the book.
Result – Win! Big win in this rivalry from Mark Stoops. Actually been impressed with UK after losing what they did.
Wake Forest (-4.5) at Syracuse – Syracuse has been bad against the number this season, only 3-8 so far. Wake Forest is 5-5-1 so not great, but better.
One thing I’ve noticed in some match-ups this week is a discrepancy in third down and red zone efficiency. In this one, Wake Forest is top 20 in third down conversion rate (best in the ACC) while Syracuse hasn’t been really good. Wake Forest is top 25 in red zone efficiency while Syracuse is ranked 109th.
Result – Loss. Not a great game for the Deacons.
Miami at Duke (+9) – This line started as low as Miami -6.5 and is floating around -8.5 and -9. People are buying into Miami this week after a terrible loss against FIU last weekend. Duke is good in red zone efficiency while Miami is #123. They are both bad on third down but Miami is dead last in the nation.
Result – Win! I thought Duke could win outright but just stuck with the line. Blue Devils won by 10, no idea why Miami was such a big favorite.
Tulane at SMU (-3.5) – This line has been bet down from SMU -5.
SMU QB Shane Buechele has been very efficient this year and has double the yards of Tulane QB Justin McMillan and over double the touchdowns. SMU RB Xavier Jones has had a solid season as well rushing for over 1,100 yards so far and 19 touchdowns.
Tulane has also lost four of their last five.
Result – Win! Not sure why SMU was such a small favorite and why it got bet down from what it was. 17-point win is a win here.
BYU at San Diego State (+3) – The line has been bet up from -2.5. San Diego State is 6-5 ATS while BYU is 4-7. San Diego State lost to Hawaii last week but covered the 3.5 in a 14-11 loss. The total is low in this game at 40.5, so I like San Diego State to cover even if they lose a close one.
Result – Win! SDSU keeps games low scoring and actually got the 10-point win.
Lock of the week
Alabama at Auburn (+3.5)
I’m putting all my chips on Auburn this week. I don’t think Auburn is playing great football, but I don’t know if I trust Mac Jones in Jordan-Hare, which is a very tough place to play. I could see Alabama winning by just a field goal (however, that means Alabama makes a field goal) and I could also see Auburn winning outright. Jalen couldn’t survive two years ago and he is a much better overall QB than Mac Jones. If Alabama wins big, it’s only because they run the ball very efficiently and I don’t see that against Auburn’s defense.
Result – Win! It wasn’t Mac Jones’ fault, even though he threw two pick 6’s. Crazy shootout but Auburn gets the win.
Ohio State at Michigan (OVER 49.5)
While I do think Ohio State and Michigan have very good defenses, this is a game that I can see being very high scoring. If one team hits 30, I think that probably ends up hitting the over.
Result – Win! Easy money here, Ohio State hit it on their own.