A decent week overall, hitting two of my three on-air picks. Since this is a boring week for many SEC teams including the two here in-state, I decided to go with five picks in my “BORING WEEK BLOWOUT SPECIAL” on-air to give a true Lunce’s List of games. Check them out below.
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The lines below are as of November 21.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 2-2
Week 9: 2-3
Week 10: 5-0
Week 11: 2-3
Week 12: 4-2
Week 13: 4-4
Total: 36-27 (57%)
On-Air Picks: 24-18 (57%)
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Week 13 Picks
Ball State (-3) at Kent State – I picked Ball State last week and they barely failed to cover (and win) against Central Michigan, but I’m jumping back on this week. Kent State hasn’t been bad against the number and they are both 6-4 this season. The scoring just hasn’t been there quite as much for Kent State and I feel like there is a reason Ball State is favored on the road.
This is hovering between -3 and -3.5 so be wary.
Result – Loss. Ball State has broken my heart two weeks in a row now.
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State (-1.5) – Arkansas State is still alive for a spot in the Sun Belt Championship game. They are a game behind Louisiana but Louisiana still has Troy this week and Louisiana-Monroe next week. Arkansas State can beat Georgia Southern and keep them from the title game.
I feel like Georgia Southern gets a little more love than they should thanks to their upset win of App State, but they followed it up by losing by over 20 points to Troy while Arkansas State beat Troy this season.
Obviously Georgia Southern can slow the game down with their offense, but I like Layne Hatcher so far this year as a freshman QB for Arkansas State.
I’ll give Arkansas State the edge here on a 3-game win streak and playing at home.
Result – Win! It was a close game, but good cover by the Red Wolves.
Troy at Louisiana (-14) + (OVER 71) – Louisiana has one of the best rushing attacks of group of 5 teams, and Levi Lewis is a pretty good QB. Troy has fallen off a bit, but still have a top 10 scoring offense this season. They have managed to put up over 33 points in all of their Group of 5 games this year including 49 and 63 the last two weeks. Louisiana has a top 25 scoring offense. While Louisiana’s defense is fairly good, Troy’s is awful, barely cracking the top 100.
Louisiana is favored by 14 and I think they will cover that too but both of these offenses have been great this year. Troy has gone over in their last four.
Result – Win/Loss. Louisiana did cover, so kudos if you took that, but I should have gone with just that instead of the over too.
Temple (+10) at Cincinnati – Cincy is winning, but they have failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Temple has covered their last two and they have only failed to keep two teams in check – SMU and UCF. Cincy beat UCF but also failed to keep East Carolina in check when Temple did and beat them by more on the road.
Also Temple beat Memphis, the only group of 5 team ahead of Cincinnati right now in the CFP rankings.
Temple also has a couple of Power 5 wins over Maryland/Georgia Tech.
I just feel like 10 is too high, it’s gone between that and 10.5 which I like even more. I don’t expect Temple to win, but I can see them keeping it close.
Result – Win! Once again, Cincy is winning, but not covering.
San Diego State (+3.5) at Hawaii – This opened at Hawaii -1, and has moved to -3. San Diego State has only faltered a couple of times this season, one of those being two weeks ago against Nevada, but they bounced back with a win over Fresno State who Hawaii just lost to.
Outside of crushing Nevada, Hawaii hasn’t done much in conference play. They have 3 other wins, but those opponents have a combined 1 win in the Mountain West. San Diego State has beaten a much higher quality of opponents and covered more in doing so.
I get that this game is on the island and being played in the middle of the night – but other than that, I don’t know why Hawaii is favored. They are 1-2 in conference play at home. I think they are getting too much credit for their opening wins against Arizona and Oregon State.
Result – Win! All you need is a cover
Lock of the week
California at Stanford (-2.5)
Both of these teams are terrible, but Cal is 1-5 in their last six with two covers while Stanford is at least 3-3 ATS. with a couple of decent wins. I would also look to the under which is currently at 40(!) because I don’t know how anyone will score. A field goal difference is enough for me, even if the score is 3-0.
Result – What a gross loss for Stanford. I stand by both of these teams being terrible.
Western Carolina (+58.5) at Alabama
If you can get it, take Western Carolina +58.5! It’s on 5Dimes at this line, so put everything you have on it. 58 is over 8 touchdowns so they will have to score 9 times and shutout Western Carolina just to cover.
Result – Loss. Of course Alabama won by 60…