After a perfect week 11, I fell apart last week. I won’t even tell you how bad I did in our office pool… Here’s to this week being better!
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The lines below are as of November 14.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 2-2
Week 9: 2-3
Week 10: 5-0
Week 11: 2-3
Week 12: 4-2
Total: 32-23 (58%)
On-Air Picks: 20-16 (56%)
If you want to follow other picks I make in college football, NFL, or any other sport, follow me on the Action Network app – myaction.app/jlunce
Week 12 Picks
Troy (-7) at Texas State – It’s been bet down from Troy -8, if it gets under a touchdown then I’d feel a lot better. However, Texas State has yet to cover an FBS game this year and they just won their second FBS game by only 2 points over South Alabama who is awful.
If Troy doesn’t win this game by at least a touchdown, it will be a very bad look for the Chip Lindsey.
2-0 picking against Texas State this season
Result – Win! Troy manhandled Texas State like I knew they would.
Central Michigan at Ball State (-2) – Both of these teams are very good against the spread so far this season, but I am leaning in the direction of the home team to get the win and cover here. The MAC West division has been a disaster this year in terms of everyone beating everyone so there is still a chance for Ball State to not only work their way into a bowl game, but to potentially still win the division.
Quinten Dormady hasn’t played good at all on the road (3 TD, 4 INT) and Central Michigan is just not good on the road overall, only winning one game at 3-7 Bowling Green.
3-1 in last 4 Central-Michigan picks
Result – Loss. Central Michigan pulled it out by 1 in a back and forth high scoring game. Tough loss.
TCU at Texas Tech (+3.5) – This line opened at TCU -1 and has been bet up to TCU -3.5. TCU has had a lot of close games this year, but have only covered 1 of their last 5. Tough break with Baylor last week.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is coming off a big win over West Virginia where they easily covered. They have covered 3 of their last 5. They do have a loss to Kansas a couple of weeks ago where they were upset. It looked like Alan Bowman would be back, but they will stay with Jett Duffey. Duffey has completed over 68% of his passes with 10 TD and only 2 picks, so he’s played well and is a good mobile QB as well.
2-0 picking Texas Tech to cover
Result – Win! TCU narrowly pulled out the win 33-31, but that’s enough for Texas Tech to cover.
Lock of the week
Florida (-7) at Missouri
Missouri has failed to cover in their last four games, only putting up 21 total points in their last three games (losses to Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia). Meanwhile Florida dominated a Vanderbilt team that just beat Missouri and their offense is clicking on all cylinders.
Result – Win! It was a little too tight early on at 6-3 heading into halftime, but Florida rattled off 17 in the second half for the easy cover.
USC at California (UNDER 48.5)
Cal’s defense has been very good and they have gone under in all but two games so far this season. USC is trying to find their way after a season of injuries and they have been up and down this season. Cal is coming off a big win where they held Washington State’s offense in check (and they also held Oregon’s offense in check earlier this season). I’ll take them to do the same to USC but not put up much themselves.
Result – Loss. Cal’s usually stout defense fell apart and USC crushed them, hitting the over in the fourth quarter.
Alabama (-20) at Mississippi State
This line dropped too low with Alabama’s loss and the potential for Tua to not play. Even with Mac Jones, I feel like this should be an easy enough win. Mississippi State hasn’t been good this year and may even miss a bowl game with a sure loss this week. Easy bounce back win for Bama.
Result – Win! It doesn’t feel like a win with Tua going down with yet another injury and being done for the season. I still think Mac Jones would have been fine, Alabama just went into cruise control at the end to only score 3 but Mississippi State is still awful.