How about last week? 5-0 hitting all my picks including all three on-air picks as well. That means I’m set up for failure this week. So we’ll see what happens…
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The lines below are as of November 7.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 2-2
Week 9: 2-3
Week 10: 5-0
Week 11: 2-3
If you want to follow other picks I make in college football, NFL, or any other sport, follow me on the Action Network app – myaction.app/jlunce
Week 11 Picks
Illinois (+14.5) at Michigan State – This is going to be a fairly low scoring game. The past four road Illinois games have hit the under and Michigan State has been under in 7 of their last 9 at home and 13 of their last 16 overall. This series has hit the under in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Michigan State’s top receiver in Darrell Stewart is out plus starting center Matt Allen is out with injuries. They also lost one of their best defenders in Joe Bachie to a positive drug test last week.
Michigan State has been outscored 100-17 in their last three games, albeit to Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Illinois is on a 3-game winning streak and a 4-game covering streak including wins over Wisconsin, Purdue and covering against Michigan.
When the line sits at just over 2 touchdowns for Michigan State, I’ll take Illinois around 14.5 or 15.
6-1 in last seven Big Ten picks
Result – Win! What a comeback for Lovie Smith! I know Ed Orgeron has coach of the year on lock, but give Lovie and Illinois some credit. After losing four straight including Eastern Michigan, they have rattled off wins against Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State. Their game against Iowa is more interesting now.
Georgia State (-2.5) at Louisiana-Monroe -I’ve picked against Louisiana-Monroe two of the last three weeks and I’ve been correct both times. They are terrible straight up and ATS (2-5 in both). Meanwhile, Georgia State has covered their last four and their only ATS loss is Western Michigan back in early September.
Dan Ellington is a solid QB with an over 4 to 1 TD to INT ratio and this is a team that has beaten a few good ones this year including an upset win over Tennessee.
3-0 picking against Louisiana-Monroe
Result – Loss. After a few strong weeks of being anti-ULM, they came back to bite me.
Florida State at Boston College (-2) – This is a game that Willie Taggart…oh wait, he got fired. FSU doesn’t have a head coach and while these two teams have been fairly similar this season, BC is 6-2 against the number while FSU has lost 3 of their last 4. I like AJ Dillon. I know Cam Akers has played somewhat well this season, but I think Dillon and BC come out on top.
2-0 in picking Boston College to cover
Result – Loss. I guess FSU is rejuvenated now that the most overrated coach in the history of coaching is gone.
Lock of the week
LSU at Alabama (-6.5)
This is a game when I stop thinking too hard about it and just realize that Alabama always wins this game now. Since the 9-6 game, Alabama hasn’t lost in this match-up, winning by these margins:
The two single digit games were in Baton Rouge and in those eight wins, LSU has been ranked in the top 5 four times. Alabama has won by an average of over 16 points, never winning by less than 14 when they have been at home.
Has LSU been good this year? Sure they have, but if Tua is playing (and it seems like he will be fine to play) then there is no reason not to pick Alabama. Don’t think too hard about it…
4-1 in last five Alabama ATS picks
Result – Loss. Sad elephant noises…
Baylor (-1.5) at TCU
Baylor may be for real or maybe not, but I feel they win this one. TCU has been back and forth but for the most part very unsuccessful this season. I know this is a rivalry game but Baylor should win easy enough, therefore covering.
Result – Win! Not an easy win like I thought, but a win is a win.