Week 9 was a snoozer for my picks, but I have a good feeling about this week.
You can hear the Player’s Club on Jox 94.5 at the following times:
Thursdays 7-8 pm
Fridays 8-9 pm
Saturdays 8-9 am
The lines below are as of October 31.
Week 1: 2-2
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 3-1
Week 4: 1-3
Week 5: 1-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 2-2
Week 9: 2-3
Week 10: 5-0
If you want to follow other picks I make in college football, NFL, or any other sport, follow me on the Action Network app – myaction.app/jlunce
Week 10 Picks
Arkansas State (-1.5) at Louisiana-Monroe – Arkansas State is still in the midst of an emotional season with head coach Blake Anderson’s wife passing away shortly before the season and they are coming off a big win and cover over Texas State, winning much bigger than Louisiana-Monroe did. They have a win and cover over Troy as well and played SMU within a score.
I continue to ride the “Louisiana-Monroe is overrated” train when it comes to them ATS. I said it was true last week and then they got manhandled by App State.
Both teams are sitting at two wins in the conference right now but I like Arkansas State.
21-7 in Sun Belt picks in 2019
Result – Win! A little back and forth, but the Red Wolves pulled it out.
New Mexico at Nevada (-3.5) – Nevada started at -6.5 and it’s down to -3.5. They have been back and forth but New Mexico has just been down. Their only win is a 3-point win over their terrible in-state counterpart New Mexico State and they didn’t even cover there. Their only win ATS was a 13-point loss to Wyoming (line was +17.5).
Nevada has at least had their moments with a few weeks both straight up and ATS.
2-0 in picking Nevada games ATS
Result – Win! Slow start from Nevada but they came back and won by double digits.
Nebraska at Purdue (+3) – Nebraska is 4-4 on the year, but they are 1-7 ATS and have been overall disappointing. Despite beating teams like South Alabama and Northwestern, they were close losses that weren’t covers despite both of those teams being bad.
Purdue is only 2-6 on the year but 4-4 ATS. While Nebraska beat Illinois and Purdue lost to them, Illinois is clearly playing possessed right now after beating Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago.
Rondale Moore is questionable so the line may move up higher for Nebraska. It’s already gone from 2 to 3.
20-10 in Big 10 picks ATS this year
Result – Win. Nebraska (and Scott Frost) continues to be a disappointment to everyone and Purdue got the outright win.
Lock of the week
UAB at Tennessee (-10.5)
UAB is still in the midst of their magical “return” but it will all come crashing down this week. Tennessee is not any good, but they are still an SEC team who has somewhat turned it around from their terrible start. They played Alabama close enough to make me think they have a good chance to win out after that, and they took it to South Carolina. No way UAB wins and I don’t think they cover either. Beware this line creeping up but I don’t think it will ever get to a point where Tennessee won’t cover.
3-1 in picking UAB games ATS this season
Result – Win! Poor UAB, this was never going to be a win. Here’s to still potentially winning C-USA.
BONUS – Northwestern at Indiana (-9) (UNDER 43.5)
Northwestern’s defense has actually been pretty good, holding Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa and Stanford all to 24 points or less. The problem is their offense which against Power 5 competition has only scored a total of 45 points in 6 games. I expect Indiana to cover, but if Northwestern’s defense plays well, that might be tough. I was asked about this on the show so I will add it as a bonus lock here – take the under.
9-4 in unders this season
Result – Win! Northwestern’s offense is indeed terrible.