We’ve finally made it to the end of the regular season and while 95% of the brackets are filled in, there are still a few ties to break, especially in the Mobile regions in 6A and 7A and most importantly in 7A Region 3 between Hoover, Hewitt-Trussville, and Vestavia.
To view the brackets, click on a classification below to see the ALPreps filled out brackets.
Anywhere it says TBD, that means there is a tie that needs to be broken this week in the final regular season game. In 6A Region 1 and 7A Region 1, there are still region games to be played as they have 9 teams.
Here is my prediction to how things will shake out:
6A Region 1
Spanish Fort has already locked up #1. Blount and Saraland are playing for #2, with the loser dropping to #3. The winner will host Chelsea and the loser will have to travel to Benjamin Russell. I think Blount wins and plays at home in round one.
As for the final spot in the region, currently Daphne sits at 4-3 in 4th, but there is a potential of a 3-way tie. Here is what needs to happen:
Daphne – Win vs LeFlore
LeFlore – Win vs Daphne AND Baldwin County loses
Baldwin County – Win vs Robertsdale AND LeFlore beats Daphne
The way I see it playing out is Daphne wins and no tiebreaker is needed.
7A Region 1
McGill-Toolen has already locked up #1. Murphy has locked up #2. After that, there are four teams vying for the final two spots.
Foley unfortunately has to face McGill-Toolen. They are one of three teams at 4-3 right now. The other two are Fairhope and Theodore and they play each other. So the winner there will get in to the playoffs at least. If Foley upsets McGill-Toolen, they will be ahead of both of them head to head. I believe it’s going to be the winner of Fairhope/Theodore and Foley no matter what, it’s just a matter of seeding. As long as Foley wins, they will be #3. If they lose, they will be #4 behind the winner of the other game.
7A Region 3
Spain Park is locked in as #1. After that it comes down to tiebreakers. Even though we debated it for a while, I think my initial breakdown on Friday night on Jox 94.5 is right. It will go on tiebreaker L, which, in-short, counts the wins of non-region opponents a team has beaten.
The number in parentheses is the number of wins they currently have. Italics indicate game to be played this week.
Hoover’s opponents: Oakland (8), Manatee (6), North Marion (8) = 22
Vestavia’s opponents: Homewood (7), Oxford (3), Shades Valley (2) = 12
Hewitt-Trussville’s opponents: Gardendale (7), Clay-Chalkville (9) = 16
So if that is the case, assuming they all win this week, Hoover will be #2, and Hewitt will end up #3 with Vestavia #4.
However, I don’t see Hewitt winning against Clay-Chalkville, and even if Hoover lost to North Marion, they still should finish ahead. It’s a bum deal for Vestavia to have three wins and the others to only have 1 or 2, but yet Vestavia still won’t finish ahead. But I can almost guarantee that it will be Hoover at #2, Vestavia at #3, and Hewitt at #4.
Central Alabama Games to Watch
North Marion (FL) (8-0) at Hoover (7-2) – Thursday
Hoover crushed Hewitt, but I don’t think that means they are all of the sudden back to being a great team. The passing game has been an issue all season, and despite winning by 38 points last week, they still only went 7-26 for 109 yards through the air with no scores. North Marion is coming in as one of the top teams in Florida, way better than Manatee, and they are undefeated so far. They have won their last three games by way of shutouts and averaged over 40 points.
Hoover is going to be a little tougher on defense against a high scoring offense, but will still have to put up points up if they want to win. They will be playing against a defense that statistically is playing the same as Spain Park. We saw what happened there. It should be a good game and Hoover is looking to get a good game in before the playoffs begin. They most likely will be the #2 seed regardless due to the tiebreaker, but they need to have a good game regardless.
Jon’s Pick: North Marion (FL)
Hewitt-Trussville (6-3) at Clay-Chalkville (9-0)
This game was looking a lot better when Hewitt had a healthy QB and RB. Jarrion Street isn’t 100% but will have to carry the workload with their starting QB out for the year. Hewitt can get the third seed with a win, and second seed if Hoover loses, but I am not sure Hewitt is going to be able to do much against the team that most people consider the best in the state. Hewitt has looked vulnerable and I didn’t think they could win when they were 100% healthy, much less now. Clay is going to roll into the playoffs at 10-0 and once again be the favorite to win the title.
Jon’s Pick: Clay-Chalkville
Helena (7-2) at Pleasant Grove (7-2)
The second seeds in 5A Region 4 and 5 are taking on each other in what would be a solid second or third round playoff match-up if they were on the same side of the bracket. The only time these teams could meet up is if they made it to the state championship, which I don’t see from either team this year. Pleasant Grove did it last year by way of a few upsets, but we will see what they have when they face Helena. Both of these teams had big losses to their region champs.
I like Helena here. I think region 4 is a more competitive region than the Birmingham city region and I think they will get a good confidence booster before heading into their week one match-up against Sidney Lanier.
Jon’s Pick: Helena
Briarwood (4-5) at Madison Academy (8-1)
Briarwood has made a late surge to make the playoffs as the 4th seed in 6A Region 5. Madison Academy has been unstoppable since their 1-1 start with a close win over Leeds and a loss to Ensworth (TN). Despite this being a 3A vs. 6A, Madison Academy will be hard to beat. However, both of these teams are on fire. Madison Academy won this game last year 49-21, but the game was close at halftime before turnovers made the score lopsided. Malik Miller really came out and played in this game last season, even outrushing Kerryon Johnson. Now Miller looks to put a cap on a good regular season before heading into the playoffs.
Madison Academy hosts Weaver in round one of the playoffs. Briarwood travels to Fort Payne.
Jon’s Pick: Madison Academy
Walker (8-1) at Northridge (7-2)
This is another good region 4 vs. 5 match-up, this time in 6A. Walker won the region title with a win over Homewood a few weeks ago in region 5, and Northridge is the 3rd seed in region 4 after losses to McAdory and Hillcrest.
Despite this being a #1 vs #3, I think Northridge can win this one. Walker beat Homewood, but hasn’t looked good in other games recently, losing to Briarwood and only beating Hueytown 7-3 with a last second TD. Northridge played Hillcrest close and already has a big win over another region 5 team in Pelham. I don’t think either of these teams can make a run in the playoffs, but this will be a good indicator of where they are before round one starts.
Northridge travels to Dothan in round one, and Walker hosts Scottsboro.
Jon’s Pick: Northridge
Statewide Games to Watch
Demopolis (8-1) at Auburn (5-4)
This is an interesting match-up that I didn’t even realize was happening until this past weekend. Demopolis has had a good season, with their only loss coming to Jackson. Auburn has been up and down but is actually hosting a 7A playoff game with a 5-4 record. That whole region was a mess, but Auburn came out on top of a crazy 6-team rumble behind Central-Phenix City.
So don’t let the records fool you, but this could be a decent game. I like Auburn here, but this can be a great test for Demopolis before things get started in round one.
Demopolis hosts Charles Henderson in round one, and Auburn will host either Foley, Fairhope or Theodore.
Jon’s Pick: Auburn
Fairhope (6-3, 4-3) at Theodore (6-3, 4-3) – 7A Region 1
These two teams are fighting for a playoff spot because the loser will lose a tiebreaker to Foley. Both of these teams had ups and downs in this region, but it’s been a tough region all year long. Theodore is coming off a very close game against McGill-Toolen, and Fairhope struggled against Murphy.
The winner will either play Auburn or Central-Phenix City depending on what happens with Foley. If Foley wins then this winner will finish 4th. Regardless, the winner is in, the loser is out.
Jon’s Pick: Theodore
Saraland (8-1, 6-1) at Blount (8-1, 6-1) – 6A Region 1
Last year’s 6A runner up needs to win here to have a home field game in round one against Chelsea. The loser of this game draws a Benjamin Russell team that will be hard to beat in Alexander City. Saraland has looked pretty good all season, but Blount had a much better game against Spanish Fort. I think the winner here can make it to the semi’s after seeing McAdory this year. Opelika and Spanish Fort are in the same half of the south bracket so they will meet before then, which gives the winner of this game a much better opportunity.
They can also meet again in the quarter-finals, which is very possible. I like Blount here against Saraland, they have looked really good this season.
Jon’s Pick: Blount
Austin (6-3) at Bob Jones (9-0)
This is kind of intriguing because Austin is the only team that has taken down Spain Park this season. Despite the 6-3 record, they are actually 2-1 against 7A teams this year with wins over Spain Park and Huntsville and a 2-point loss to Buckhorn. I don’t think they can take down Bob Jones, but in a week that doesn’t really matter for either team when it comes to the playoffs, who knows what could happen?
Bob Jones has won their region and will host the 4th seed between Hoover/Vestavia/Hewitt and Austin is the 2nd seed from 6A Region 8 and will host Pinson Valley.
Jon’s Pick: Bob Jones