This year has been an interesting year for movies. Personally, I’ve seen more movies in theaters this year than ever and I’m looking forward to seeing how things go on Sunday, March 4. I think we’ve seen a lot of this telegraphed through the various award shows leading up to the Oscars, but sometimes we are surprised.

Below, I’ve listed each category and what “should win” in my opinion from the nominees listed, what probably “will win”, plus any dark horses and any snubs.

If you want to check out my ratings for every single movie I’ve seen this year plus my personal top 10, you can catch that here.

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Vegas Favorite: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (20/23)

Dark Horse: Lady Bird, Get Out

Snubs/Notes: There are some snubs that I think were deserving – Blade Runner 2049, The Florida Project, Baby Driver, The Big Sick, Logan, The Disaster Artist. I personally vote for Call Me By Your Name, but I understand Three Billboards and The Shape of Water are the favorites.

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Should Win: Timothée Chalamet

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Vegas Favorite: Gary Oldman (1/25)

Dark Horse: Daniel Day-Lewis

Snubs/Notes: Nothing against Gary Oldman, and he did a fantastic job, but Timothée Chalamet did arguably the greatest acting job I’ve ever seen in Call Me By Your Name. Also, Denzel is only nominated because he is Denzel and James Franco is accused of sexual misconduct. Franco was great though.

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Vegas Favorite: Frances McDormand (1/16)

Dark Horse: Sally Hawkins

Snubs/Notes: Can’t really complain about this category. Personally I think Rooney Mara should be nominated from A Ghost Story, but I know it won’t ever get the love it deserves. But she acted the hell out of that movie.

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Vegas Favorite: Sam Rockwell (1/8)

Dark Horse: Richard Jenkins

Snubs/Notes: Richard Jenkins was the best part of The Shape of Water, and I think he’s deserving. However, Sam Rockwell was what really made Three Billboards for me and he’s won everything else. I will also note that the two best candidates for Supporting Actor weren’t even nominated in Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg from Call Me By Your Name. I personally feel like it should be against the rules to have multiple people nominated from the same movie. Sam Rockwell has won everything so far, so Woody Harrelson has to go in place of Armie Hammer, or at least replace Christopher Plummer with Armie Hammer. Another snub in my opinion was Patrick Stewart being left off from his performance from Logan.

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf

Will Win: Allison Janney

Vegas Favorite: Allison Janney (1/6)

Dark Horse: Lesley Manville

Snubs/Notes: Laurie Metcalf was outstanding in Lady Bird, but Allison Janney has been cleaning up so far, so we’ll see. Octavia Spencer is great as well. However, the one person that should have made this list was Holly Hunter from The Big Sick. It’s criminal she wasn’t nominated.

Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: Christopher Nolan

Will Win: Christopher Nolan

Vegas Favorite: Guillermo Del Toro (1/10)

Dark Horse: Greta Gerwig

Snubs/Notes: I’m holding out hope that Nolan finally gets it done. Also, Three Billboards has been cleaning up at other awards shows, yet Martin McDonagh wasn’t even nominated as best director. I think the following could have easily been nominated: Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049), James Franco (The Disaster Artist) and Steven Spielberg (The Post). Also of note, Wonder Woman was left out of the Oscars completely, but many thought Patty Jenkins might at least get a nod here.

Animated Feature:

“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Should Win: Coco

Will Win: Coco

Vegas Favorite: Coco (1/50)

Dark Horse: No one, Coco is 100% winning.

Snubs/Notes: I actually really enjoyed Cars 3, and I’m surprised it’s not here. However, Pixar can’t just own the category every year and I understand Coco being here instead. With that said, WHERE IS LEGO BATMAN?

Animated Short:

“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

Should Win: Lou

Will Win: Dear Basketball

Vegas Favorite: Dear Basketball (1/3)

Dark Horse: Garden Party

Snubs/Notes: Lou was a good short that played before Cars 3. I thought it was great and knew it would be nominated here. I haven’t seen Dear Basketball, but it’s got Kobe Bryant behind it, which will help.

Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Vegas Favorite: Call Me By Your Name (1/12)

Dark Horse: Mudbound

Snubs/Notes: Call Me By Your Name is my #1 movie of the year so I’m biased, but I think it has to win. Logan may be second in my mind. The Disaster Artist could be interesting with the stuff James Franco is going through now. It might would have won before.

Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Should Win: The Big Sick

Will Win: Get Out

Vegas Favorite: Get Out (EVEN)

Dark Horse: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Snubs/Notes: The Big Sick was snubbed in multiple categories this year. I feel like Get Out may end up with no awards either with it’s competition…except this one.

Cinematography:

“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Vegas Favorite: Blade Runner 2049 (1/8)

Dark Horse: Dunkirk is the only other one even worth putting here this year

Snubs/Notes: This one is tough. Both Dunkirk and Blade Runner 2049 are by far the top two choices and both are worthy. I like Blade Runner 2049 better overall, but the cinematography is what made Dunkirk. I think Blade Runner 2049 eventually wins, but those two are the only ones that are even worthy. Roger Deakins never winning after 13 nominations is criminal so hopefully this puts him over the top with Blade Runner 2049.

Best Documentary Feature:

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

Should Win: Icarus

Will Win: Icarus

Vegas Favorite: Faces Places (1/3)

Dark Horse: Last Men in Aleppo

Snubs/Notes: Icarus was amazing and one of the few Netflix releases on the list. I’ve heard good things about City of Ghosts though, which was snubbed. I don’t know about Faces Places, but it’s the Vegas favorite, although Icarus isn’t far behind it in the odds.

Best Documentary Short Subject:

“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

Should Win: ?

Will Win: Eddie+Edith

Vegas Favorite: Edith+Eddie (2/5)

Dark Horse: ?

Snubs/Notes: This is hard to choose snubs for. I’ll be honest, I haven’t seen any of this and have no idea.

Best Live Action Short Film:

“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

Should Win: ?

Will Win: DeKalb Elementary

Vegas Favorite: DeKalb Elementary (4/11)

Dark Horse: ?

Snubs/Notes: This is hard to choose snubs for. Ditto to the category above.

Best Foreign Language Film:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

Should Win: The Square

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman

Vegas Favorite: A Fantastic Woman (11/5)

Dark Horse: The Square

Snubs/Notes: No idea, The Square is the only serious foreign language candidate I know of, and I’ve heard a lot of good things about it. It’s on Hulu now if you want to watch it. I’ve seen one trailer for A Fantastic Woman, but I was only half paying attention, but it seems like the easy favorite.

Film Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

Should Win: Baby Driver

Will Win: Dunkirk

Vegas Favorite: Dunkirk (1/5)

Dark Horse: The Shape of Water

Snubs/Notes: I feel like Blade Runner 2049 should have been nominated here as well. Baby Driver isn’t far behind Dunkirk in the odds.

Sound Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

Should Win: Baby Driver

Will Win: Dunkirk

Vegas Favorite: Dunkirk (1/9)

Dark Horse: Baby Driver

Snubs/Notes: Hard to complain with the list once again. This will be interesting to see because Baby Driver and Blade Runner 2049 are the easy choices for me, with Dunkirk in a close third even though it’s the Vegas favorite. Same goes for the Sound Mixing category where the same five movies are nominated.

Sound Mixing:

“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

Should Win: Baby Driver

Will Win: Dunkirk

Vegas Favorite: Dunkirk (1/8)

Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049

Snubs/Notes: Ditto with above.

Production Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Vegas Favorite: The Shape of Water (1/7)

Dark Horse: Beauty and the Beast

Snubs/Notes: I can’t complain with these five, although I’m surprised more superhero movies don’t make it. I guess they feel like it’s more about CGI and less about the sets these days. Same with something like Star Wars these days compared to the past.

Original Score:

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Should Win: The Shape of Water

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Vegas Favorite: The Shape of Water (1/4)

Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Snubs/Notes: Blade Runner 2049, the music was part of what made the movie and I can’t believe it didn’t get nominated.

Original Song:

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Should Win: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

Will Win: “Remember Me” from Coco

Vegas Favorite: “Remember Me” from Coco (8/13)

Dark Horse: “Stand Up For Something” from Marshall

Snubs/Notes: “I Get Overwhelmed” from A Ghost Story was the most hauntingly beautiful song I heard all year. I think it was an original song done by Dark Rooms for A Ghost Story and if so, it should have been nominated. I think “This is Me” should win, but Common’s song is very timely and will get some big votes, and Coco is made to win this category much like The Greatest Showman is.

Makeup and Hair:

“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

Should Win: Darkest Hour

Will Win: Darkest Hour

Vegas Favorite: Darkest Hour (1/10)

Dark Horse: Victoria and Abdul

Snubs/Notes: Bright was a polarizing movie, but you can’t deny the makeup in it being outstanding. It’s a little mindblowing that Suicide Squad won this category last year and Bright wasn’t even nominated yet it was done by the same people. I also don’t understand why they only do three in this category and five or more in everything else.

Costume Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Will Win: Phantom Thread

Vegas Favorite: Phantom Thread (1/9)

Dark Horse: Beauty and the Beast

Snubs/Notes: Come on – Phantom Thread is about making clothing, it’s a lock.

Visual Effects:

“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlon
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Vegas Favorite: TIE – Blade Runner 2049/War for the Planet of the Apes (20/23)

Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Snubs/Notes: I figure War for the Planet of the Apes will win solely because of the motion capture aspect, and Andy Serkis was almost good enough to be considered for a best actor Oscar even though we didn’t see his face. Blade Runner 2049 didn’t have a lot of motion capture, but I obviously vote for that.